Adrian Peterson
Adrian Peterson gave the Sophomore Slump a tough stiff arm when he won the NFL career title in 2008. He rushed for 1,760 yards on 363 carries (4.8) with 10 TDs. He had 21 receptions for 125 yards. He has passed 100 yards ten times and has been under 76 yards just once. Talk about constant production. Despite having two monster games as a rookie (224 and 296), he passed for 75 yards only seven times. His consistency improved dramatically. What I like about AP is how he takes responsibility. He really takes his “deficiencies” seriously and works hard to improve. I expect him to be even more complete in 2009, which should scare opposing defenses.

The Vikings face Cincinnati, Carolina, and Chicago in the fantasy playoffs. Cincy has much improved defense (on paper), but she should still be able to get away with them. Carolina could be tough. Chicago isn’t the same defense it has been in the past, but it should present a challenge, especially at home. AP should get off to a fast start facing Cleveland and Detroit in Weeks 1 and 2 and St. Louis in Week 5. They should dominate Detroit in Week 10 and Arizona in Week 13.

AP will go 1 or 2 in most leagues. Standard scoring, he’ll probably be No. 1, while the PPR leagues could push him to No. 2. I think he’s even better in 2009 rushing for 1800 yards and 14 TDs.

michael turner
Michael Turner more than proved that he was capable of stepping out of LT’s shadow to be a standout racer. Early in the season he was inconsistent. I would dominate bad Defenses [Detroit, KC, GB (injuries), Oakland, Denver] and get bottled up by the good guys [TB, Carolina, Chicago, Philly]. However, something happened in Week 12 when he destroyed Carolina for 117 yards and 4 TDs. He developed into a machine that put up solid games against everyone he faced, including TB and a tough D-run from Minnesota. He had 100+ yards and/or a TD in his last nine games.

Still, there’s cause for concern despite the monstrous numbers (1,699 yards, 17 TDs). He had 376 carries last year. That’s a lot for a runner, even if he didn’t have a lot of mileage going into the season. Historically, ORs with such a heavy workload see a drop in production the following year. I’m already calling for his touchdowns to be cut because of the addition of Tony Gonzalez, who is great inside 20. He’s going to face a tougher schedule this year with games against Miami, New England, Dallas, Washington, NY Giants, Philadelphia. , and the Jets, along with two games against Carolina and Tampa Bay. His fantasy playoff schedule consists of matchups with New Orleans, the Jets and Buffalo, which isn’t terrible. Despite the likely drop in production, I still think Turner will be in the top 3-4. He expected 1,700 total yards and 13 TDs.

maurice jones drew
Maurice Jones-Drew finally has a chance to prove he can be a standout running back in the NFL. Given what he’s done in a somewhat limited role, the fantasy world is salivating at the thought of what he could do in a larger role. Naturally, there is some risk in taking a player who has never had 200 carries in a season, but that can be seen as an advantage since he hasn’t racked up much mileage. Despite his 5’7″ height, he is quite durable. That’s because he packs on 208 pounds of muscle on that frame. He is a bowling ball with great moves and quickness. What’s more impressive is his nose for the end zone. Mojo has 40 TDs (34 rushing, 4 receiving, 2 returning) in his three years. He also has a great talent for catching the ball from the backfield. He has had more than 40 receptions each year, including his career-high 62 last year. He should greatly benefit from a healthy Offensive Line, which was the main reason behind Jacksonville’s disappointing 2008 season.

This year, Jacksonville has good matchups against Arizona in week 2, St. Louis in week 6, Kansas City in week 9 and Cleveland in week 17, which doesn’t help most fantasy owners. Their fantasy playoff schedule consists of Miami, Indianapolis and New England, which is less than desirable. Of course, a RB with MJD’s versatility has the ability to produce against anyone.

Mo-Jo is likely to be in the top three picks in most leagues, perhaps #1 overall in PPR leagues. I fully expect him to live up to the high expectations of him. I’m putting him at 2000 total yards with 14 total TDs.

strong matte
Like most of the best Running Backs this year, there are some question marks with Matt Forte. AP will likely have to deal with a gunslinger taking over QB. MJD has never had more than 200 carries, so it’s unknown how he’ll deal with the increased workload. Michael Turner had a ton of carries last year, something that historically has been bad for next year’s production. Matt Forte’s questions are similar to AP’s. What will adding a proven QB to your production mean? With Jay Cutler under Center, will Forte lose carries? Likely. His catching ability, though (he led all RBs with 63 receptions last year) will keep him heavily involved on offense. Will his presence open up the running game by keeping Defenses honest? Likely. Although I don’t expect Forte’s production to suffer from Cutler’s arrival.

The main thing Forte had going for him was consistency. He just failed to reach 10 fantasy points in a game (8.5 in week 4 vs. Philadelphia) during the typical fantasy season (he had 7.5 in week 17). He scored a TD in 10 of the first 16 games. He didn’t have monster games, but he delivered every week. Despite playing in an offense with limited-skill position players, Forte had 1,715 total yards and 12 total TDs.

He has a pretty friendly fantasy schedule early on against Detroit in week 4 (unfortunately, the second meeting is week 17), a three-game streak in weeks 7-9 against Cincinnati, Cleveland and Arizona, and week 13 against St.Louis. His fantasy playoff schedule is brutal, making him a high-seller candidate. He faces Green Bay, Baltimore and Minnesota. His ability to catch passes from him should help, but that’s a tough schedule at the worst possible time.

Although he could struggle down the stretch, he should still be good for 1,700 total yards and 10+ TDs. Unless he gets injured, he will be selected among the top four picks with a slight increase in the PPR leagues.